Major law firms are weighing their bets: merge or go it alone.

On one side, firms are merging at a record pace. 59 law firm mergers were recorded in the US in 2025, an 18% jump on 2024, as firms chase revenue growth, geographic reach and the capital to invest in AI.

A&O Shearman kicked things off, combining Allen & Overy and Shearman & Sterling into a cross-border powerhouse. Then came Herbert Smith Freehills, which merged with Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel to form HSF Kramer. Ashurst and Perkins Coie quickly followed, their tie-up set to create a top-20 global firm with more than 3,000 lawyers.

Mid-tier firms are playing the same game, bulking up on headcount to compete with the big end of town. And while "merger" is the word firms prefer, the reality is blunter. 86% of 2025 deals were outright acquisitions, with a larger firm absorbing a smaller one.

A decade ago, the crossroads looked different: China or the UK.

Blake Dawson integrated with Ashurst, Freehills married Herbert Smith, and Allens inked its alliance with Magic Circle firm Linklaters. In 2012, King & Wood merged with Mallesons Stephen Jaques to form King & Wood Mallesons.

The next wave is already forming. A Citi Hildebrandt forecast for 2026 finds that 1 in 5 large firms considers some form of acquisition likely, with many “seeking a major US presence, possibly resulting in more transatlantic merger activity.”

But not every firm is betting on scale.

Some are backing independence, positioning themselves to catch work from US and global firms without an Australian footprint. Mallesons’ split from King & Wood is the most prominent local example. King & Wood has since moved to plant its own US flag, announcing two new American offices before the demerger crystallised.

Mallesons concluded the integrated global brand simply did not work. “We are no longer strategically aligned,” former KWM CEO Renae Lattey said when the split was announced. The firm now positions itself as “the top-tier independent law firm from Australia.”

It's the same strategy Gilbert + Tobin, Corrs Chambers Westgarth and Clayton Utz have long maintained. The “independent” label is a genuine selling point to US majors hunting for an Aussie firm that isn't already tied to a rival — like HSF Kramer.

Those firms want a local partner they can trust with their clients, not a competitor in disguise. For the independents, that’s the pitch.

And right now, it's landing.