👋 G’day

Welcome back to another day of insights

Today’s brief:

  • EY sued for ignoring warnings

  • Clayton Utz secures Canberra work

  • Partner sacked for social media posts

Here’s your latest 👇

PRACTICE POINTS

ASX eyes earnings gaps

  • ASX200 companies have been put on notice ahead of earnings season, with ASX warning it will issue ‘aware’ letters if results day sees a 10%+ share price jump without an earlier disclosure. Under Listing Rule 3.1, companies must disclose material info, and ASX says a 5 to 10% deviation from previous earnings guidance or a 15% deviation from market consensus could trigger a duty to update. Even a 5% gap might warrant disclosure for stable businesses. ASX suggests companies consider whether there’s reasonable certainty around earnings divergence, and if not, why disclosure wasn’t previously made: Gilbert + Tobin

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  • ASIC Chair Joe Longo used his ABA keynote to call out the gap between AI hype and public trust, urging banks to lead with “client-centric AI” or risk setting the tech back. Just 36% of Aussies trust AI, and ASIC wants banks to show real benefits, not just flashy tools. Longo praised Westpac’s scam-busting bots, NAB’s systemic complaint detection, and CBA’s anti-scam AI decoys, but warned AI must serve, not surveil. While ASIC isn’t rushing to regulate, it will enforce tech-neutral laws, and directors are on notice that AI oversight is now a board-level duty: ASIC

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  • From 1 August, the new Property Law Act 2023 (Qld) starts applying to all real and personal property deals governed by Queensland law. It ushers in a raft of changes, which include a new disclosure regime if you’re selling, lease terms becoming binding on buyers and new REIQ contracts. The perpetuity period for trusts holding property has also now been extended from 80 to 125 years. For a full breakdown of the changes, check out Clayton Utz’s article.

WORD ON THE STREET

CU claims Canberra cash

  • Clayton Utz has doubled down on government work, with $71m in federal contracts, up from a $31m four-year average. Sparke Helmore, Maddocks, Holding Redlich and HWL Ebsworth also surged, with Holding Redlich tripling its contract value and cracking the top 10. The shake-up follows a revamp of the federal legal services panel and Labor’s push to slash outsourcing: AFR

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  • Global US firm Mayer Brown fired its newly hired funds partner for his lewd social media posts from his now-deleted X account that surfaced online. The firm said the behaviour wasn’t picked up in pre-hire checks, but once the Medium blog exposé dropped, his partnership was swiftly terminated. The saga reignited debate about how deep due diligence should go, especially when reputation is on the line: Law.com

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  • Former EY partner Joe Howie is suing the firm in New York, claiming he was sacked for warning about money laundering risks linked to Crown, Star and junket king Alvin Chau. He alleges EY ignored red flags and prioritised profit over propriety, approving continued work with Chau just five months before his arrest. EY says the claims are “entirely without merit”: AFR

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  • Baker McKenzie has boosted its Melbourne employment team with the hire of Marie Costa as special counsel. She joins from Corrs, where she spent 11+ years and made her mark advising on WHS, investigations, and critical incidents: Lawyers Weekly

TALKING POINTS

Retail crime hits $9bn

  • Coles, Myer and the Reject Shop are sounding the alarm as shoplifting, ram raids and organised gangs push retail crime to $9bn a year. Now the sector wants a national crackdown, with uniform laws and small biz support, framing crime as a drag on productivity. Alarm tags are no longer cutting the mustard, with retail giants wanting a task force: The Australian

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  • Is thinking becoming the new luxury? As smartphones hijack attention spans, long-form literacy is becoming a class privilege, argues Mary Harrington in the NY Times. Poorer kids are clocking two extra hours of screen time a day, while “the elites” limit their own kids' tech, hire “no phone” nannies, and shell out $34k for Waldorf schools: New York Times

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  • China wants to host a global AI hub. Premier Li Qiang has proposed a global AI centre to stop a “select few” dominating the industry, as Beijing and Washington race to shape global rules. China’s backing Shanghai as HQ, promising open access and tech sharing—just days after Trump declared the US–China AI fight will define this century. Over 30 nations attended the Shanghai summit, but don’t expect Washington to sign up: SCMP

THE TREASURY

ASX as at market close. Commodities and crypto in USD.

DEAL ROOM

HSBC’s retail exit

  • HSBC: is weighing a sale of its Australian retail banking arm, appointing Citi to run the process. The unit holds $33bn in mortgages, $18bn in deposits, and a sizeable credit card book that could tempt local buyers keen to bulk up. Commercial banking will stay put, but the retail retreat fits HSBC’s global cost-cutting and refocus on wealth: AFR

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  • BlueScope: is the last one standing, with other suitors walking away from the Whyalla Steelworks sale over concerns about its inside running. Despite more than 30 groups showing early interest, rivals say BlueScope’s last right of refusal makes the process a foregone conclusion: The Australian

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  • HSF Kramer: confirmed it’s advising One Investment Management on its proposed $3.3bn buyout of Insignia Financial, as part of the CC Capital consortium. It’s a big win for the firm’s public M&A bench, with regulatory hurdles, financing and tax also in play in the drawn-out timeline: HSF Kramer

SECTOR SPECIFIC

Illegal smokes surge

🚜 DIGGERS
  • Ford has slashed its Liontown lithium order as North American EV sales stall, forcing Liontown to offload 150k tonnes to a Chinese buyer. The Gina Rinehart-backed miner is still burning cash at Kathleen Valley, with FY26 production now forecast below analyst expectations. Liontown warned that spod costs could outstrip prices for the year ahead: AFR

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  • Mineral Resources has pulled the plug on $135m in interest-free funding to Resource Development Group, pushing Chris Ellison’s younger brother’s garnet miner into administration (ouch). McGrathNicol is now running RDG’s operations, but the Lucky Bay project’s fate is shaky. Shareholders had already slammed Andrew Ellison for mismanagement, and now it looks like the mine’s finally run out of road: AFR

🏦 FIN
  • HSBC is telling all managing directors to return to the office four days a week from October, joining a growing list of banks tightening hybrid work. The UK giant says senior staff must “set the tone from the top” and that in-person interactions are “essential”. They’re facing a 7,700 desk shortage ahead of their new HQ move: Bloomberg

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  • CBA is facing Fair Work action from the FSU, which claims the bank axed 300 Aussie tech roles while hiring for those same positions in India. The union’s accusing CBA of breaching its Enterprise Agreement and acting in bad faith, after its Indian workforce almost doubled in two years. FSU says the cuts were about cheap labour, not genuine redundancies: FST Media

🏠 RETAIL & REAL ESTATE
  • Viva Energy’s tobacco sales have slumped 27%, with the company blaming new packaging rules and the booming illegal cigarette trade. It’s hit convenience sales hard, down 10% to $835m. Viva’s not alone - Ampol and Metcash have flagged similar trends, with black market smokes now 29% of consumption: AFR

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  • Elanor Investors Group has locked in a $125m rescue deal from Singapore’s Rockworth Capital, which will lift its stake to 47.9%. But Elanor will lose its prized $3bn Challenger Life mandate, likely to land with Charter Hall: AFR

📱 TECH & STARTUPS
  • YouTube will now be included in Australia’s social media ban for under 16s, after the government reversed a flagged exemption. The backflip follows lobbying by rivals and pressure from eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant, who says 37% of online harm to kids happens on YouTube. The ban kicks in from 10 December: ABC

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  • The Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance is urging Labor to tax AI giants like OpenAI and Meta for using Aussie content to train their models. Just 3% of surveyed creatives said they’d been asked or paid for their work. If miners pay royalties for digging up iron ore, tech firms should pay for mining creative work: Capital Brief

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-Team PB

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