👋 G’day

Welcome back to another day of insights

Today’s brief:

  • Legal salaries surge, but retention wobbles

  • HSF leads M&A with $60.8bn in deals

  • Labor to ban YouTube for teens

Here’s your latest 👇

PRACTICE POINTS

Reverse onus bites

  • In Shum v SMRC, the employer claimed redundancy, but the Court found the real reason for dismissal was the employee’s complaints and exercise of workplace rights, both protected under the Fair Work Act. That’s where the reverse onus bites: once adverse action is alleged, the employer must prove the decision wasn’t tainted by a prohibited reason. SMRC couldn’t do that. The judge found the SMRC’s cost-cutting restructure was tailored to exclude Ms Shum, that external lawyers were brought in not to advise on restructuring but to navigate a “removal”, and that the decision-makers were motivated by a desire to silence her. The ruling underscores the high bar employers must meet to rebut the presumption: Colin Biggers & Paisley

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  • An employee brought an application requesting that he be permitted to WFH two days per week after his initial request for a flexible working arrangement was refused by his employer. The FWC also wasn’t convinced. While he shared care of two school-aged kids, he admitted he had no direct caring duties during core hours. His wife handled school pick-ups, and he already had flexibility around start/finish times. The FWC found his request didn’t validly link to parenting needs, so it was not validly made. In any event, his employer had reasonable business grounds to refuse the request as his tech support role was one of six and relied on in-office collaboration.

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  • IP Australia has a free new TM Checker. It’s a handy entry-level tool for new businesses wanting a quick heads-up on potential trade mark issues. It uses AI to check for similar registered marks. But the catch is that it won’t catch unregistered marks, domain names or social handles. A full clearance search is still the gold standard: Gilbert + Tobin

WORD ON THE STREET

HSF Kramer tops M&A tables

  • HSF Kramer is back on top, ranking #1 for Australasian M&A in H1 2025 after advising on $60.8bn in deals—up 117% YoY, per Mergermarket. Allens placed second ($51.5bn), followed by Linklaters ($42.2bn). The game-changer? ADNOC’s $36bn Santos bid. KWM and Ashurst rounded out the top five. We dived into the M&A deals behind the rankings. Check it out here.

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  • Salaries in the legal sector jumped 7.8% year-on-year, landing law in the top five fastest-growing industries, per Hays. But while 61% are happy with their pay, retention’s shaky—31% see no clear path up, and nearly half doubt promotion prospects. Hays says firms need better perks, clearer pathways and structured mentoring to stay competitive: Australasian Lawyer

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  • Clifford Chance has posted £2.4bn in global revenue, up 9% YoY, with US revenue up 50% over two years. Profit per equity partner crept up to £2.11m, still trailing Linklaters’ £2.2m. The Middle East (+36%) and private capital boom were key growth drivers, as CC eyes further expansion in the US post-Houston launch: Global Legal Post

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  • Jamie Guthrie has joined Gilbert + Tobin as partner in its energy, resources and infrastructure team. With stints at Minters, Allens, and overseas, Guthrie brings 13+ years' experience advising on big-ticket renewables and infrastructure projects: LawyersWeekly

TALKING POINTS

YouTube ban backflip

  • Labor’s set to scrap YouTube’s planned exemption from the upcoming teen social media ban, after the eSafety Commissioner warned the platform still exposes kids to online harms. The reversal would align YouTube with TikTok, Meta and Snap, which face $50m fines if they don’t stop under-16s repeatedly accessing their services when restrictions kick in from December: Capital Brief

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  • Profits are falling for a second straight year. Overall profits on the ASX 200 are tipped to fall 1.7% this financial year, led by a near 20% slump in resources. UBS says it could pause the ASX’s recent 19% rally, but not derail it—tech stocks are still surging, forecasted to grow earnings by almost 30%. Eyes now turn to reporting season, with Rio, ResMed and Pilbara first off the rank: AFR

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  • The Albanese govt will today introduce a bill to lock in penalty and overtime rates, blocking the Fair Work Commission from letting employers bargain them away. It follows a push by retail lobbyists to swap penalty rates for 35% higher base pay. Rishworth says the award system is a non-negotiable safety net, not a back door for pay cuts: AFR

THE TREASURY

ASX as at market close. Commodities and crypto in USD.

DEAL ROOM

Youngest founder funded

  • Square Peg: just backed its youngest-ever founder, 18-year-old Liam Fuller, with a $2.1m raise for his AI-powered retail procurement platform, Source. The platform helps retail teams automate purchase decisions using agentic AI. The round will fund US pilots and team hires: Capital Brief

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  • ADNOC and Carlyle’s: $36bn tilt at Santos is nearing the pointy end, but due diligence is proving tricky. PNG LNG, which makes up nearly half of Santos’ revenue, is reportedly underdelivering on earnings and could need more capex than expected. Add WA decommissioning risks and FIRB scrutiny, and it’s clear this one’s not a done deah unit, going head-to-head with Oaktree’s AZ NGA. Bain’s narrowed focus follows its Insignia retreat and La Trobe indecision. The carve-out would slash Perpetual’s $569m debt and sharpen its focus on asset management and trusts: The Australian

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  • Bain Capital is gunning for Perpetual’s $20.6bn wealth unit, going head-to-head with Oaktree’s AZ NGA in a race tipped to fetch up to $550m. Bain’s narrowed focus follows its Insignia retreat and La Trobe indecision. The carve-out would slash Perpetual’s $569m debt and sharpen its focus on asset management and trusts: The Australian

SECTOR SPECIFIC

ASIC aggression

🚜 DIGGERS
  • Woodside has scrapped its $US1bn H2OK hydrogen project in Oklahoma, citing portfolio “discipline”. Investors cheered, but critics say the pivot to LNG growth, via Scarborough, Senegal and Louisiana, undermines decarbonisation. Still, production is up, costs are down, and capex was trimmed to $US4bn–$US4.5bn: The Australian

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  • Glencore will shut its last Aussie copper mines next week, ending 60+ years of upstream copper production in Mt Isa. A decision on whether to also shutter its smelter, which currently processes ore, is due by September. The miner says it can't compete with China’s heavily subsidised smelters, despite copper’s bullish long-term outlook: Mining Weekly

🏦 FIN
  • ANZ raised concerns over ASIC’s “aggressive” interviews. It prompted the regulator to sideline a key investigator, who was placed on leave and later reinstated, though no longer works on the case. Despite being labelled “highest priority,” the bond manipulation probe has dragged on, with ASIC’s largest team still investigating: AFR

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  • Equifax has launched Open Score, tapping Mastercard’s Open Finance network to assess a person’s financial health with no credit history needed. Scored 0–10 based on real-time income and spending, it’s a game-changer for 2.5m Aussies often excluded from credit, particularly young people, migrants and returnees who don’t show up in traditional reports: Finextra

🏠 RETAIL & REAL ESTATE
  • Mirvac says Melbourne’s battered office market is finally back, with vacancies stabilising and sublease levels at 1.5%. Mirvac’s $480m 7 Spencer Street tower just locked in Aecom and Work Club and Docklands is now tipped to become the city’s first “business improvement district”: AFR

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  • Charter Hall is launching a new $147m office trust aimed at wealthy investors, targeting prime towers in Brisbane and Canberra. The fully leased assets are being pitched as “bottom of the cycle” buys with yields at 7.3%, co-owned with Charter Hall’s existing funds. It’s chasing $77.4m in fresh capital, citing rising demand and tight supply: The Australian

📱 TECH & STARTUPS
  • Like a couple divorcing but still sharing a bed, Seek must allow Employment Hero to access its platform, after the Federal Court blocked its attempt to cut access. Despite investing in the $2bn HR start-up, Seek also competes with it. The stoush will drag into 2026, but for now, Employment Hero’s platform runs business as usual, but a legal headache from one of Seek’s own portfolio bets: AFR

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  • Alphabet beat revenue forecasts with US$96.4bn in Q2 sales, but still copped a 2.8% after-hours drop after flagging US$10bn in additional capex. The extra spend is all-in on AI: data centres, model builds, the works. But with returns lagging and competition from China heating up, investors want proof before the price tag: Capital Brief

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Till next time,

-Team PB

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