The Brief:
Entry-level hiring across the AmLaw 200 has flatlined for four years, even as firms banked tens of billions in extra revenue.
Laterals now outnumber fresh grads, with Australian firms showing a similar pattern.
New SurePoint data shows entry-level associate hiring across the AmLaw 200 firms has barely budged in four years.
7,489 in 2022
7,640 in 2023
7,417 in 2024
7,426 in 2025
Over that same period, the AmLaw 200 added tens of billions of dollars in combined revenue. A booming market would normally mean more junior lawyers to feed the engine.
So, where is that growth going? Laterals.
Lateral hiring jumped 12% from 2024 to 2025 alone. Last year, laterals actually outnumbered fresh grads for the third time in five years — 7,852 vs 7,426.
Source: SurePoint 2026 Law School Hiring Report
There are a few plausible theories to explain this trend. One is AI, steadily absorbing the routine tasks juniors have traditionally used to build their skills. The other is client pressure. With buyers increasingly reluctant to pay full rates for inexperienced lawyers, firms are favouring hires who can bill at senior rates from the outset.
We’re seeing a similar story in Australia. Earlier this year, MinterEllison became the first major Australian firm to admit AI is eating entry-level work, slashing its grad cohort by almost a third to 72. HSF Kramer, Allens and Mallesons also trimmed grad numbers this year, chalking it up to seasonal factors rather than AI.
Whatever the cause, the story is consistent across both markets — junior hiring is taking a hit.
Source: SurePoint